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is the simulator's smartest ",[699,703,704],{},"Sales forecast",". A campaign isn't one flat burst — sales build up ",[707,708,709],"em",{},"before"," it, spike ",[707,712,713],{},"during",", and taper ",[707,716,717],{},"after",". This mode splits those three stretches apart and learns how big each one is from ",[699,720,721],{},"your own past campaigns",", so the estimate matches how your shop really behaves.",[696,724,725,726,728],{},"Pick it from ",[699,727,704],{}," in the inspector (nothing selected). It's optional — for a quick number, the simpler forecasts are fine.",[730,731],"doc-image",{"caption":732,"src":733,"width":734},"Campaign phases: set when the campaign runs.","\u002Fimages\u002Fdocs\u002Fproducts\u002Fcampaign-simulator-phase-setup.png","34rem",[736,737,739],"h2",{"id":738},"set-the-phase-window","Set the phase window",[741,742,743,750],"ul",{},[744,745,746,749],"li",{},[699,747,748],{},"Campaign starts"," — the day the campaign begins.",[744,751,752,755,756,759,760,763,764,767],{},[699,753,754],{},"Phase length (days)"," — three fields: ",[699,757,758],{},"Before"," (run-up, default 7), ",[699,761,762],{},"During"," (the campaign, default 3), ",[699,765,766],{},"After"," (tail, default 7).",[696,769,770],{},"A coloured bar shows the three stretches with their dates.",[736,772,774],{"id":773},"teach-it-your-past-campaigns","Teach it your past campaigns",[696,776,777,778,781,782,785],{},"The model gets smarter with real examples. Open the ",[699,779,780],{},"Past campaigns"," tool (toolbar) — the ",[699,783,784],{},"Past campaign dates"," button — and log a few campaigns you've already run:",[787,788,789,804,826],"ol",{},[744,790,791,792,795,796,799,800,803],{},"On the calendar, mark the campaign's days (paint ",[699,793,794],{},"Campaign"," first, then optionally ",[699,797,798],{},"Ramp-up"," \u002F ",[699,801,802],{},"Wind-down",").",[744,805,806,807,810,811,814,815,814,818,821,822,825],{},"Set the ",[699,808,809],{},"Campaign type",": ",[699,812,813],{},"Not sure \u002F other",", ",[699,816,817],{},"Double day (11.11, 12.12)",[699,819,820],{},"Payday",", or ",[699,823,824],{},"Flash sale",".",[744,827,828,829,832,833,836,837,840],{},"Name it (optional), keep ",[699,830,831],{},"Already happened"," on, and ",[699,834,835],{},"Add to list",". Repeat per campaign, then ",[699,838,839],{},"Save periods"," — one save sends the whole list.",[730,842],{"caption":843,"src":844,"width":845},"Past campaigns — mark past campaigns for the model to learn from.","\u002Fimages\u002Fdocs\u002Fproducts\u002Fcampaign-simulator-periods.png","44rem",[696,847,848,849,852,853,856,857],{},"Once it's learned you'll see ",[699,850,851],{},"\"Phase lift: pre ×1.2 · campaign ×3.4 · post ×0.8\""," and ",[699,854,855],{},"\"learned from 3 past periods\"",". Read it plainly: ",[707,858,859],{},"during the campaign this shop sells about 3.4× a normal day, warms up 1.2× before, and runs a bit slow (0.8×) after.",[861,862,864],"callout",{"icon":863},"i-lucide-info",[696,865,866,867,870],{},"No campaigns logged yet? You'll see ",[707,868,869],{},"\"We don't know your past campaigns yet, so results use the standard sales forecast.\""," Add your dates and the phase model learns from them — nothing breaks in the meantime.",[736,872,874],{"id":873},"does-a-discount-actually-sell-more","Does a discount actually sell more?",[696,876,877,880,881,884,885,887],{},[699,878,879],{},"Price response"," (Scenario panel) decides whether a lower price wins ",[707,882,883],{},"extra units",", not just changes the math. It only affects the ",[699,886,341],{}," forecast:",[741,889,890,896,910],{},[744,891,892,895],{},[699,893,894],{},"Off — price ignored"," — assume the discount doesn't change how many you sell.",[744,897,898,901,902,905,906,909],{},[699,899,900],{},"Native — auto estimate"," ",[707,903,904],{},"(default)"," — work it out from how your buyers reacted to past price changes. ",[699,907,908],{},"Leave it here"," — it's the smart default.",[744,911,912,915,916,919,920],{},[699,913,914],{},"Manual — set elasticity"," — you set one number, ",[699,917,918],{},"Elasticity (β)",". −1 roughly means a 1% discount lifts units 1%; more negative = more price-sensitive. ",[699,921,922],{},"Most sellers never touch this.",[696,924,925,926,929,930,814,933,814,936,821,939,942,943,946],{},"After each run a ",[699,927,928],{},"Demand response"," badge says where the estimate came from — ",[707,931,932],{},"your shop's own estimate",[707,934,935],{},"a trained model",[707,937,938],{},"your elasticity",[707,940,941],{},"flat (no estimate)",". ",[699,944,945],{},"Flat"," means there wasn't enough price history, so a discount won't move the unit forecast that run.",[736,948,950],{"id":949},"the-extra-numbers-youll-see","The extra numbers you'll see",[696,952,953,954,957,958,961,962,965,966,803],{},"Campaign phases adds a per-product ",[699,955,956],{},"sell-out"," chance (how likely you run out of your reserved stock) and a ",[699,959,960],{},"low \u002F likely \u002F high"," demand range — so you see the spread, not just one hopeful number. With a baseline set, rows also show ",[707,963,964],{},"\"+N vs no campaign\""," (see ",[967,968,351],"a",{"href":352},{"title":970,"searchDepth":971,"depth":971,"links":972},"",3,[973,975,976,977],{"id":738,"depth":974,"text":739},2,{"id":773,"depth":974,"text":774},{"id":873,"depth":974,"text":874},{"id":949,"depth":974,"text":950},"Forecast a campaign from your past ones, and see how a discount moves sales.",null,"md",{},{"icon":344},[984],"shopee","---\ntitle: Campaign phases\ndescription: Forecast a campaign from your past ones, and see how a discount moves sales.\nplatforms:\n  - shopee\nnavigation:\n  icon: i-material-symbols-timeline-rounded\n---\n\n**Campaign phases** is the simulator's smartest **Sales forecast**. A campaign isn't one flat burst — sales build up *before* it, spike *during*, and taper *after*. This mode splits those three stretches apart and learns how big each one is from **your own past campaigns**, so the estimate matches how your shop really behaves.\n\nPick it from **Sales forecast** in the inspector (nothing selected). It's optional — for a quick number, the simpler forecasts are fine.\n\n:doc-image{src=\"\u002Fimages\u002Fdocs\u002Fproducts\u002Fcampaign-simulator-phase-setup.png\" width=\"34rem\" caption=\"Campaign phases: set when the campaign runs.\"}\n\n## Set the phase window\n\n- **Campaign starts** — the day the campaign begins.\n- **Phase length (days)** — three fields: **Before** (run-up, default 7), **During** (the campaign, default 3), **After** (tail, default 7).\n\nA coloured bar shows the three stretches with their dates.\n\n## Teach it your past campaigns\n\nThe model gets smarter with real examples. Open the **Past campaigns** tool (toolbar) — the **Past campaign dates** button — and log a few campaigns you've already run:\n\n1. On the calendar, mark the campaign's days (paint **Campaign** first, then optionally **Ramp-up** \u002F **Wind-down**).\n2. Set the **Campaign type**: **Not sure \u002F other**, **Double day (11.11, 12.12)**, **Payday**, or **Flash sale**.\n3. Name it (optional), keep **Already happened** on, and **Add to list**. Repeat per campaign, then **Save periods** — one save sends the whole list.\n\n:doc-image{src=\"\u002Fimages\u002Fdocs\u002Fproducts\u002Fcampaign-simulator-periods.png\" width=\"44rem\" caption=\"Past campaigns — mark past campaigns for the model to learn from.\"}\n\nOnce it's learned you'll see **\"Phase lift: pre ×1.2 · campaign ×3.4 · post ×0.8\"** and **\"learned from 3 past periods\"**. Read it plainly: *during the campaign this shop sells about 3.4× a normal day, warms up 1.2× before, and runs a bit slow (0.8×) after.*\n\n::callout{icon=\"i-lucide-info\"}\nNo campaigns logged yet? You'll see *\"We don't know your past campaigns yet, so results use the standard sales forecast.\"* Add your dates and the phase model learns from them — nothing breaks in the meantime.\n::\n\n## Does a discount actually sell more?\n\n**Price response** (Scenario panel) decides whether a lower price wins *extra units*, not just changes the math. It only affects the **Campaign phases** forecast:\n\n- **Off — price ignored** — assume the discount doesn't change how many you sell.\n- **Native — auto estimate** *(default)* — work it out from how your buyers reacted to past price changes. **Leave it here** — it's the smart default.\n- **Manual — set elasticity** — you set one number, **Elasticity (β)**. −1 roughly means a 1% discount lifts units 1%; more negative = more price-sensitive. **Most sellers never touch this.**\n\nAfter each run a **Demand response** badge says where the estimate came from — *your shop's own estimate*, *a trained model*, *your elasticity*, or *flat (no estimate)*. **Flat** means there wasn't enough price history, so a discount won't move the unit forecast that run.\n\n## The extra numbers you'll see\n\nCampaign phases adds a per-product **sell-out** chance (how likely you run out of your reserved stock) and a **low \u002F likely \u002F high** demand range — so you see the spread, not just one hopeful number. With a baseline set, rows also show *\"+N vs no campaign\"* (see [Counterfactual](\u002Fdocs\u002Ffeatures\u002Fcampaign-simulator\u002Fcounterfactual)).\n",{"title":341,"description":978},"_fp1Cq3OMtqRn0Fkug04MXp7TYhuVNuLd67bqlzeSTg",{"data":989,"body":990},{},{"type":991,"children":992},"root",[993],{"type":994,"tag":696,"props":995,"children":996},"element",{},[997],{"type":998,"value":978},"text",1792784993147]